Football’s back and some things never change. Seahawks look dominant on both sides of the ball. Romo takes all the blame. And the commish’s list of friends is dwindling with every passing day. But among the constants, there’s always change. The Jags show signs of life. Johnny Football has come to save Cleveland. And the Patriots hold sole possession of last place. New year, and a fresh fight for the crown. And never does a year go by without some serious surprises and sleepers emerging as contenders.

I could sit here and offer Atlanta and Tennessee as this year’s sleepers, and I’d like my chances. But I’ll just stick to what I know best and call out a deep sleeper in the cigar world that’s a total lock. The Reckoning by Studio Tobac: a bold, newer release from Oliva that somehow stayed very quiet.

As soon as you lay your eyes on it, you’ll know this puppy looks good enough to eat. Its dark, Nicaraguan Habano wrapper is gorgeous to say the least, but it’s the ligero-packed long-fillers inside that make the mouthwatering virtually unavoidable.

At first light your palate will be bombarded by heady notes of white pepper, earth, and espresso. As I puffed my way through the first third, I began to get concerned that the delicious, intense flavors swirling about would vanish quicker than David Carr’s career. To my relief, that didn’t happen, but instead, an intriguing change in flavors took place taking Reckoning’s complexity up one notch. Entering the mix were sweeter notes of leather and oak, but the intense pepper that started it all off still remained, just a bit more subtle. As I approached the nub, even richer, more complex nuances entered the fray, including wood and a slight black cherry note. Still, until the very end, the full-bodied strength and the same pepper that got my attention from the start maintained.

Do yourselves a favor, The Reckoning is one hidden gem and at under five bucks a pop, this is a late round steal that will have your friends furious they didn’t snag em’ first. Low risk and a huge payout with no drama, this sleeper’s the safest bet around.